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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd